I have read Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke and it's a great book for anyone looking to understand how our outcomes do not reflect the quality of our decisions alone.

My favourite excerpt from the book -

"When we work backward from results to figure out why those things happened, we are susceptible to a variety of cognitive traps, like assuming causation when there is only a correlation, or cherry-picking data to confirm the narrative we prefer. We will pound a lot of square pegs into round holes to maintain the illusion of a tight relationship between our outcomes and our decisions"